Monday, April 30, 2007

Insightful article on Jamshedpur and the Tatas

I visited Jamshedpur over the weekend to see for myself an India that is fast disappearing despite all the wolf-cries of people like Narayanamurthy and his ilk. It is one thing to talk and quite another to do and I am delighted to tell you that Ratan Tata has akept alive the legacy of perhaps India's finest industrialist J.N. Tata.

Something that some people doubted when Ratan took over the House of the Tatas but in hindsight, the best thing to have happened to the Tatas is unquestionably Ratan. I was amazed to see the extent of corporate philanthropy and this is no exaggeration.

For the breed that talks about corporate social responsibility and talks about the role of corporate India, a visit to Jamshedpur is a must. Go there and see the amount of money they pump into keeping the town going; see the smiling faces of workers in a region known for industrial unrest; see the standard of living in a city that is almost isolated from the mess in the rest of the country.

This is not meant to be a puff piece. I have nothing to do with Tata Steel, but I strongly believe the message of hope and the message of goodness that they are spreading is worth sharing. The fact that you do have companies in India which look at workers as human beings and who do not blow their software trumpet of having changed lives. In fact, I asked Mr Muthurman, the managing director, as to why he was so quiet about all they had done and all he could offer in return was a smile wrapped in humility, which said it all.

They have done so much more since I last visited Jamshedpur, which was in 1992. The town has obviously got busier but the values thankfully haven't changed. The food is still as amazing as it always was and I gorged, as I would normally do. I visited the plant and the last time I did that was with Russi Mody.

But the plant this time was gleaming and far from what it used to be. Greener and cleaner and a tribute to environment management. You could have been in the mountains. Such was the quality of air I inhaled! There was no belching smoke; no tired faces and so many more women workers, even on the shop floor. This is true gender equality and not the kind that is often espoused at seminars organized by angry activists. I met so many old friends. Most of them have aged but not grown old. There was a spring in the air which came from a certain calmness which has always been the hallmark of Jamshedpur and something I savored for a full two days in between receiving messages of how boring and decrepit the Lackluster Fashion Week was.

It is at times such as this that our city lives seems so meaningless. Jamsetji Nusserwanji Tata had created an edifice that is today a robust company and it is not about profits and about valuation. It is not about who becomes a millionaire and who doesnt'. It is about getting the job done with dignity and respect keeping the age-old values intact and this is what I learnt. I jokingly asked someone as to whether they ever thought of joining an Infosys or a Wipro and pat came the reply: "We are not interested in becoming crorepatis but in making others crorepatis."

This is exactly what the Tatas have done for years in and around Jamshedpur. Very few people know that Jamshedpur has been selected as a UN Global Compact City, edging out the other nominee from India, Bangalore. Selected because of the quality of life, because of the conditions of sanitation and roads and welfare. If this is not a tribute to industrial India, then what is? Today, Indian needs several Jamshedpurs but it also needs this Jamshedpur to be given its fair due, its recognition. I am tired of campus visits being publicized to the Infosys and the Wipros of the world.

Modern India is being built in Jamshedpur as we speak. An India built on the strength of core convictions and nothing was more apparent about that than the experiment with truth and reality that Tata Steel is conducting at Pipla.

Forty-eight tribal girls (yes, tribal girls who these corrupt and evil politicians only talk about but do nothing for) are being educated through a residential program over nine months. I went to visit them and I spoke to them in a language that they have just learnt: Bengali. Eight weeks ago, they could only speak in Sainthali, their local dialect. But today, they are brimming with a confidence that will bring tears to your eyes. It did to mine.

One of them has just been selected to represent Jharkand in the state archery competition. They have their own womens football team and whats more they are now fond of education. It is a passion and not a burden. This was possible because I guess people like Ratan Tata and Muthurman havent sold their souls to some business management drivel, which tells us that we must only do business and nothing else.

The fact that not one Tata executive has been touched by the Naxalites in that area talks about the social respect that the Tatas have earned. The Tatas do not need this piece to be praised and lauded. My intent is to share the larger picture that we so often miss in the haze of the slime and sleaze that politics imparts. My submission to those who use phrases such as "feel-good" and "India Shining" is first visits Jamshedpur to understand what it all means. See Tata Steel in action to know what companies can do if they wish to. And what corporate India needs to do. Murli Manohar Joshi would be better off seeing what Tata Steel ha s done by creating the Xavier Institute of Tribal Education rather than by proffering excuses for the imbroglio in the IIMs. This is where the Advanis and Vajpayees need to pay homage. Not to all the Sai Babas and the Hugging saints that they are so busy with. India is changing inspite of them and they need to realise that. I couldn't have spent a more humane and wonderful weekend. Jamshedpur is an eye-opener and a role model, which should be made mandatory for replication. I saw Corporate India actually participate in basic nation-building, for when these tribal girls go back to their villages, they will return with knowledge that will truly be life-altering.

Corporate India can do it but most of the time is willing to shy away. For those corporate leaders who are happier winning awards and being interviewed on their choice of clothes, my advise is visit Tata Steel, spend some days at Jamshedpur and see a nation's transformation. That is true service and true nationalism.

Tata Steel will celebrate 100 years of existence in 2007. It won't be just a milestone in this company's history. It will be a milestone, to my mind of corporate transparency and generosity in this country.

It is indeed fitting that Ratan Tata today heads a group which has people who are committed to nation-building than just building inflluence and power. JRD must be smiling wherever he is. And so must Jamsetji Nusserwanji. These people today have literally climbed Every Last Blue Mountain. And continue to do so with vigour and passion.

Thank God for the Tatas!

Note:
Before this article I always thought that Tata's should have done always more socially responsible but have a look on corporate India and tell me another company or business house which has done more than them. Other software companies might have done more as better business house made there share holder's millionaires but have anyone made such a powerful yet humble attempt to empower rural India.

Few months before the budget I have one of top IT companies chairperson to lobby saying that Software Company should pay taxes and contribute to Indian growth since they pay taxes outside nothing to Indian government where there operations are.

But let me tell you one thing have this top honcho ever built till now any development centre in rural India. Microsoft has done total charity in India bigger than this India IT companies do together. The one of the top IT companies have 1000 sq ft. area for per employee (I doubt even we afford that area at home) on the name of recreation – they feel we don't have comfort on our homes so they provides better than home facility. There corporate styles tell us to afford the luxuries when half of the countries is barely could afford necessity.

Friends nothing against the capitalism – a king must live like a King. But a king has responsibility for public at large at least they must stop speaking like politicians when it comes to social responsibility and start doing something for people.

I have one honest suggestion for this big IT companies as they can afford some shaving of the revenues rather than looking to make tax free SEZ's which need large pool of employees which is available in TEIR I and II cities only. They shall come out with smaller development centers in smaller cities near engineering colleges and help engineering colleges to produce world class output. This will fuel the rural growths which have just started with disposable income. This will even be beneficial for them as fresher's will be available at lesser infrastructure and salary cost in smaller cities.

This is time for another IT revolution and challenging the mindset. If we could empower our rural India we could achieve a growth trajectory which is impossible to comprehend. This is the time technology can afford and rural India is roaring just feed it with proper resources.









Tuesday, April 24, 2007

The End of a 1,400-Year-Old Business

What entrepreneurs starting family businesses can learn from the demise of Japanese temple builder Kongo Gumiby James Olan Hutcheson The world's oldest continuously operating family business ended its impressive run last year.
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Japanese temple builder Kongo Gumi, in operation under the founders' descendants since 578, succumbed to excess debt and an unfavorable business climate in 2006. How do you make a family business last for 14 centuries? Kongo Gumi's case suggests that it's a good idea to operate in a stable industry. Few industries could be less flighty than Buddhist temple construction. The belief system has survived for thousands of years and has many millions of adherents. With this firm foundation, Kongo had survived some tumultuous times, notably the 19th century Meiji restoration when it lost government subsidies and began building commercial buildings for the first time. But temple construction had until recently been a reliable mainstay, contributing 80% of Kongo Gumi's $67.6 million in 2004 revenues.
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Keys to Success
Kongo Gumi also boasted some internal positives that enabled it to survive for centuries. Its last president, Masakazu Kongo, was the 40th member of the family to lead the company. He has cited the company's flexibility in selecting leaders as a key factor in its longevity. Specifically, rather than always handing reins to the oldest son, Kongo Gumi chose the son who best exhibited the health, responsibility, and talent for the job. Furthermore, it wasn't always a son. The 38th Kongo to lead the company was Masakazu's grandmother.
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Another factor that contributed to Kongo Gumi's extended existence was the practice of sons-in-law taking the family name when they joined the family firm. This common Japanese practice allowed the company to continue under the same name, even when there were no sons in a given generation.
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So if you want your family business to last a long time, the story of Kongo Gumi says you should mingle elements of conservatism and flexibility—stay in the same business for more than a millennium and vary from the principle of primogeniture as needed to preserve the company. The combination allowed Kongo Gumi to survive some notable hard times, such as when it switched temporarily to crafting coffins during World War II.
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Burst Bubble
The circumstances of Kongo Gumi's demise also offer some lessons. Despite its incredible history, it was a set of ordinary circumstances that brought Kongo Gumi down at last. Two factors were primarily responsible. First, during the 1980s bubble economy in Japan, the company borrowed heavily to invest in real estate. After the bubble burst in the 1992-93 recession, the assets secured by Kongo Gumi's debt shrank in value. Second, social changes in Japan brought about declining contributions to temples. As a result, demand for Kongo Gumi's temple-building services dropped sharply beginning in 1998.
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By 2004, revenues were down 35%. Masakazu Kongo laid off employees and tightened budgets. But in 2006, the end arrived. The company's borrowings had ballooned to $343 million and it was no longer possible to service the debt. In January, the company's assets were acquired by Takamatsu, a large Japanese construction company, and it was absorbed into a subsidiary. To sum up the lessons of Kongo Gumi's long tenure and ultimate failure: Pick a stable industry and create flexible succession policies. To avoid a similar demise, evolve as business conditions require, but don't get carried away with temporary enthusiasms and sacrifice financial stability for what looks like an opportunity. These lessons are somewhat contradictory and paradoxical, to be sure. But if sustained success came easy, then all family businesses would have a 1,428-year run.

Sunday, April 22, 2007

4 Rules for Asset Allocation

One of the biggest (if not the biggest) determinants of how well your investment portfolio does is how you divide your assets into various investment vehicles. What percentage do you need in cash, stocks, bonds, real estate, and so on? It's a difficult question to answer for many. But in this piece, let's simplify the process into four rules for asset allocation. They are:


 

Rule No. 1: If you need the money in the next year, it should be in an interest-bearing savings or money market account.


 

Rule No. 2: If you need the money in the next one to five (or even seven) years, choose safe, income-producing investments such as Treasuries, certificates of deposit (CDs), bonds, bond funds, income funds or balanced funds.


 

Rule No. 3: Any money you don't need for more than seven years is

a candidate for the stock market.


 

Rule No. 4: Always own stocks. Even if you're at or near retirement age, stocks can help your portfolio beat the debilitating effects of inflation. In a growing economy, do a buy and hold approach for high quality growth scripts.

Interview of Warren Buffett - CNBC


Part:2


Part:3


Part: 4


Part:5

Friday, April 20, 2007

China’s soaring economic growth, POWER & MORE POWER

China’s soaring economic growth has been headlined in recent years by a single, attention-grabbing statistic: China each year adds new power generating capacity equal to the UK’s entire electricity grid. But China surpassed this benchmark last year, according to new figures released quietly at the end of January by the China Electric Power News, the mouthpiece of the state industry. The paper reported that new power capacity in 2006 had expanded by 102 gigawatts, or roughly equal to the entire capacity of the UK and Thailand combined, or about twice the generating assets of California, the state with the biggest economy in the US. China expects its installed power generating capacity to grow by around one third to 840 gigawatts by the end of the decade.

I wonder if any reader can doubt their GDP numbers.....

Rs 450,000 cr fund shortage in power sector

After the dismal performance in the 10th Plan, the power sector is facing a similar fate in the 11th Plan with the Centre, states and private companies estimated to fall short of a massive Rs 450,000 crore during 2007-12 -- nearly 45 per cent of the total funds requirement.
The country needs about Rs 10,31,600 crore to add more than 70,000 MW of generation capacity, besides creating and upgrading transmission and distribution systems. However, the sector would have a shortfall of Rs 4,51,607 crore, as per the report of Working Group on Power for 11th Five-Year Plan.
The major chunk of the shortage is for states which are slated to make total capacity additions of around 24,000 MW in the 11th Plan and need Rs 5,14,167 crore. On a debt-equity ratio of 70:30, states need an equity capital of Rs 154,250 crore, but surprisingly have no equity available to fund the expansion. Out of Rs 3,59,917 crore of total debt required, the states can arrange Rs 1,64,973 crore. This leaves a gap of close to Rs 2,70,000 crore in debt and equity for the states taken together, after considering an additional Rs 80,000 crore in funding by special schemes such as APDRP and Rajiv Gandhi Gramin Vidyutikaran Yojana.
The massive shortage is not surprising given the fact that the state utilities suffered a loss of Rs 26,150 crore and posted a negative rate of return of 27.43 per cent, according to the Economic Survey released in February 2007. According to the report, the 11th plan capacity addition target has been set at 68,869 MW. But since around 23,000 MW has been added in 10th plan, compared to the targeted 41,000 MW, the 11th plan would need a capacity of 76,000 MW.
During 2007-12, the Centre would add at least 37,000 MW, private firms over 9,000 MW and states 23,000 MW. (Economic Times)

Thursday, April 19, 2007

Rs 50,000 cr required in '07-08 for Basel-II CAR

PSU banks alone will need a whopping Rs 50,000 crore in the current financial year to meet capital adequacy requirements under Basel-II norms, a finance ministry official said on Thursday.

"Public sector banks will need to mobilise Rs 50,000 crore by the end of the financial year, for the implementation of Basel-II norms," secretary (financial sector) Vinod Rai said. Banks are required to set aside Rs 9 as capital for every Rs 100 they lend.

"The current year may witness banks use a variety of options to shore up capital for Basel-II, including raising tier-I and II capital. More than a dozen public sector banks have enough headroom to dilute government equity up to 51% and raise capital," a government official said. However, sustaining GDP growth at current levels will require greater credit growth.

It has been argued that the credit-to-GDP ratio in the country at 30% is much lower than in developed countries where it is more than 150%. Bankers were divided on the moderation of credit growth. Canara Bank CMD MBN Rao said, "A calibrated increase in credit growth is desirable."

The capital requirement will increase if credit continues to grow at the same pace as the last three years: 28-30%. The Basel-II norms, that will be in force for 2007-08, require banks to assign risk weightage based on borrower's credit rating

China: Possibility of another rate hike

Chinese stats Bureau comments on over heating witnessed in china & excessive liquidity .PBOC could go in for another rate hike. All base metal could feel the pressure and Asian indices may take a clue from it.

China's Economy Surges at Faster Than Expected 11.1% on Exports

China's economy grew at a faster than expected 11.1 percent pace, powered by exports that have inflamed trade tensions and increased the risk of overheating.

Spending on factories and real estate accelerated in the first quarter, the statistics bureau said today in Beijing. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 10.4 percent from a year earlier, the same as in the previous quarter.

China's government, concerned the boom may turn to bust, may raise interest rates or allow the yuan to appreciate faster to curb runaway investment in property, factories and the stock market. The China Banking Regulatory Commission today cautioned that a trade surplus that almost doubled to $46.4 billion in the first quarter may trigger a rebound in bad loans.

``China needs to raise the cost of capital -- it's still way too cheap, and that means investment is too strong,'' Stephen Green, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank Plc in Shanghai, said before the release. ``Add asset-price inflation pressures, and you have a recipe that is worrying Beijing again.''

China's benchmark CSI 300 stock index fell 4.7 percent after the announcement, amid speculation that faster than expected growth may prompt a rate increase as soon as today. That's the most since the 9 percent one-day plunge at the end of February that triggered a global equities rout.

Consumer prices climbed 3.3 percent in March versus a central bank target of 3 percent for 2007. That's the highest inflation rate in more than two years.

Tuesday, April 17, 2007

$5 Trillion Equity Market Is in India's Reach: (Bloomberg)

April 17 (Bloomberg) -- The next few months will set the tone for the growth of Indian financial markets in years to come.

If India can make a successful beginning with the proposed modernization of its pension industry, the market value of domestic stocks may well exceed $5 trillion in 2020, higher than that of Japan's equities today.
That prediction is based on back-of-the-envelope calculations, taking into account the impact that old-age savings appear to have had on stock markets elsewhere in the world.
According to Helene Poirson, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, equity markets in the Group of Seven industrialized nations grew the equivalent of 40 percentage points of gross domestic product from 1980 to 1998, led by an increase in pension assets. Chile, too, witnessed a similar strong correlation between retirement savings and market value.
There's no reason the script should play out any differently in India. The size of the retirement market as a ratio of GDP is only a 10th as big as in Singapore, Japan and Malaysia, and a quarter as large as in Hong Kong, according to HSBC Holdings Plc.
Assuming that India's $822 billion economy grows 8 percent a year with 5 percent inflation, a $5 trillion stock-market should be within India's reach in slightly more than a decade; as much as a fifth of it may be associated with larger flows of retirement funds into equities.

In July, India will take a small yet significant step in this direction.

Political Impasse

The task of ensuring old-age security for all federal government employees who joined after January 2004 will be handed over to three asset-management companies.

The managers will be able to invest 5 percent of the money in equities and 10 percent in equity-linked mutual funds, D.Swarup, chairman of India's Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority, said in New Delhi last week.

The political consensus for a fuller liberalization of the pension industry still eludes. The legislation that will see all workers building nest eggs through 401(k)-type personal, portable accounts has been stuck in parliament for more than two years because of staunch opposition from trade unions and the government's Marxist backers. No one expects the impasse to end soon.

That's because the left-wing parties and unions want every civil servant to continue to receive a guaranteed pension equal to half of their last-drawn pay. Never mind that these ``defined- benefit'' plans have been shown to be veritable time bombs for fiscal sustainability.

By 2010, the annual budgetary outlay on government pensions in India will amount to 1.8 percent of GDP, or double what the government spends on health care.

Baby Step
So why should investors care about 500,000 ``new'' public servants migrating to an actively managed ``defined- contribution'' retirement plan from July?

That isn't exactly critical mass in a country where the government alone has 17 million employees and the workforce is 400-million strong.

Besides, to begin with, pension-fund managers will be selected from within the state-run financial industry. Limited competition raises the specter of high fund-management fees and diminished returns for retirees.

Yet, for all its timidity, it's a step in the right direction. Ajay Shah, a former consultant to the Indian Finance Ministry, says India should move to a partially deregulated pension management industry within the ambit of the existing regulatory framework, rather than wait for the passage of a compromised pension-fund bill.

Surging Demand

Surveys have pointed to strong demand in India for long-term retirement products.

Public servants who joined before 1984 have their guaranteed pensions. The hundreds of millions of workers toiling in the informal or unorganized economy have nothing at all.

Stuck in between are the 40 million employees working in the non-state formal economy whose mandatory savings go to the state- run Employment Provident Fund, a defined-contribution plan that shuns equity and invests most of its money in sedate ``special'' government securities. It's simply not a vehicle for providing meaningful, old-age security to anyone.

As income levels in India rise, people will increasingly look for investment options that marry present-day tax savings with serious long-term wealth creation. The urban affluent should be the logical target in expanding the scope of the new pension plan, which aims to offer -- to those who have the appetite for risk -- a maximum of 50 percent exposure to stocks.

Financial Markets
What will all this mean for Indian equities?
By the late 1990s, much of the regulatory work in improving the efficiency and integrity of the stock market in India was complete. Yet, ``it is only since 2003, when the GDP started growing at its current pace, that the large global investors became interested and poured money into it,'' says a new report by Standard & Poor's.
Growing overseas interest is only part of the equation.
What's still missing from the Indian equity market, as UTI Mutual Fund's chief investment officer, A.K. Sridhar, told me late last year, is long-term domestic money. That's where retirement funds will play a big role.
The quest for old-age security has the power to deepen Indian equity markets. How the government goes about opening the industry in the next few months and years will be crucial.

Monday, April 16, 2007

Infosys and Slowdown

I am really surprised by the view of the pepole regarding impact of global slowdown on large IT companies. I really feel things have been blown out of proportion without understanding the business model of Indian IT companies and their reason of existence in global value chain. you might be thinking what the hell I am thinking of, when all leading analyst feel otherwise, with due respect to there views lets us understand where exactly business model of Indian IT companies makes impact and what is there role in value addition?
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If u have a closer on look on US, It has been facing the problem to grow as economy not just this year but since the start of the millenium. It is since then Indian offshoring industry has started gaining bones and flesh. Indian offshoring industry has never ever provided any innovative services which there european or american counterparts couldn't provide (yes, sorry to sound anti-mera bharat mahan but it is true). Then why we existed and growed reason is very simple - american companies were unable to scale further but 50-100 bps point rise in margins makes there financial growth look spectacular.
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What is the most important contribution of Indian outsourcing industry to global supply chain? - It is delivery by pepole who are more proper for its execution. That is what in management terms called RIGHT MAN AT RIGHT PLACE. Righteousness is not just decided by the efficieny but also by the cost at which delivery is made (not to be confused by drop in quality) so now same quantum of work is done by some sitting different part of the world.
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That is what Thomas friedman (three time pultizer prize winner) coined as flattening of the world in his book "The World is flat".
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And if you got it right our reason for emergence in global supply chain was-
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True Globalisation: After the 2000-01 is what I consider world has started understanding the true potential of globalisation, previously it was meant to be way of gaining scale for american and european companies with help of there government by asking to remove the protectionist policy by practised by the developing countries. But after 2000-01 a newer type of reveloution started in global economy which started changing game of global expansion which was somewhat 200-300 years started by american and european explorers. But Indian companies started changing by suppling the labour in cheaper quantity of by using the broadband (on which extensive investment were made in pre dot-coms era) this globalisation of product to services also faced the protectionist policy from america and other european countries (restriction in H1-B visas
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Global Value chain : Now the value chain has been globalised, 'right people' are adding value to the chain. One point should always be rembered that Indian companies are providing same services which were previously provided by there american and european counterparts but at the cheaper rates, by outsourcing major chunk to India.
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Slowdown: In case of the slowdown again gaining scale will be difficult and for survival expansion through reducing margins will become crucial and now the protectionist policy of west will take hit as they will forced to open up there supply. Indian companies have very small pie of global IT spending and it is so strategically divided that in event of slowdown the larger portion will be chopped first and it will divided in to Indian players.

Tuesday, April 10, 2007

Chain Reaction - CLSA

CLSA: The IT industry's impact on the Indian economy

Based on an online survey of over 42,000 IT professionals, CLSA has come out with an interesting study - titled "Chain Reaction" - about the impact of the growth of the IT industry on the Indian economy.

Where IT makes an impact
From FY08CL, India?s IT exports are set to exceed its net oil imports.

! The IT sector will pick up over 80% of India's employable engineers and 60% IT-employable graduates? Addressing one-third of the urban employment challenge.

! We estimate that each IT job will create at least 1.4 other jobs in the economy.

! We forecast IT to account for 20-25% of Indian GDP expansion over FY07-10; transform Indian cities; and, as the sector matures, drive innovation in the country.

Spending trends among IT professionals
! IT alone can absorb 70-75% of residential and two-thirds of forecast commercial FY07-10 real estate demand. Realty demand forecasts seem conservative.

! We see the segment supporting two-thirds of five-star hotel-room additions and one-third of budget hotel expansion over FY07-10.

! We predict IT professionals will personally fund 20% of incremental domestic travel.

! An important contributor to financial services development, IT workers account 20% of online trading accounts, and 12% of credit cards.

! IT workers will also drive 17% of new home loans over FY07-10CL.

! They will also account for 13% of car sales; 16% of A+B-segment car sales; and one-third of demand for multiplexes over FY07-10CL.

As they age, as they earn
! We see further spikes in consumption trends for the 28-35 age bracket particularly home/car ownership, and healthcare and leisure spending.

! IT professionals spend US$1bn annually on eating out? and nearly US$ 700m annual healthcare costs.

! All these areas will get a boost in coming years we estimate 500,000 IT professionals will move into this age group in the next three to four years.

Monday, April 9, 2007

Rate hikes to keep bean counters soaking

The worst isn't over. It may be wiser for India Inc to prepare for more interest rate hikes in the coming days. The chairman of prime minister's economic advisory council, C Rangarajan, has warned India Inc of the possibility of further interest rates hike and to factor in higher interest costs in their future planning to mitigate adverse impact of interest rate hikes.

Justifying the monetary measures initiated by the Reserve Bank of India, Mr Rangarajan underscored the need to contain inflation that can be achieved through various monetary measures the central bank has recently taken. High inflation is inconsistent with high growth in the long run. Policy makers need to do a balancing act of keeping inflation low and maintaining the growth momentum, he said.

Prudent policy measures in 1995-96 helped avert the impact of the Asian crisis in 1997. Similarly, the monetary authorities are right in taking the measures at a time when money supply growth is high in order to prevent future troubles. Corporates must also factor in the possibility of rising interest rates.

Inflation cannot be brought down if money supply growth is high and, therefore, there is a need to keep inflation low by restraining money supply growth and credit growth, he said. Sustained high inflation could be counterproductive and also have adverse impact on savings. Mr Rangarajan was addressing a round table discussion, An economic architecture for 10% GDP growth, organised by the Bombay Chamber of Commerce & Industry in Mumbai on Monday.

Although inflation was much higher in the 1980s and 1990s, it was against the backdrop of high global inflation. However, inflation has come down globally, and, therefore, there is a need to moderate inflation now, he said. As a result, the acceptable levels of inflation for the economy are also much lower now.

One of the signs of overheating in the economy is when inflation and current account deficit are running high. In India, inflation is running higher than the accepted level of 5.5%. Regarding current account deficit, it is not likely to exceed 1% of GDP. However, trade deficit is high at 6-7% of GDP as the surpluses of the services sector have helped to offset the trade deficit to an extent.
Thus, it cannot be denied that there are signs of overheating, he said. However, he said, overheating at present is cyclical in character and we should take care to prevent cyclical overheating from becoming structural overheating. It is in this context that a greater emphasis on availability of power assumes importance.

He outlined six challenges for the economy to maintain the high-growth momentum. These include stepping up agricultural growth, infrastructure development, fiscal consolidation, building social infrastructure, managing globalisation and good governance. Source:ET

Sunday, April 8, 2007

Economists Everyone Should Know.

Sure, the next time you're laid off, salaried down, underbudgeted, or wearing hand-me-downs, you could blame the economy. But why pick on the economy when you can pick on the economist instead?

1. Adam Smith (1723 - 1790)

Ever felt a push from behind on your way to work, but when you turned around no one was there? It was probably Smith's "invisible hand," the force that leads individuals pursuing self-interest to provide useful goods and services for others. Champion of the free market, Smith pretty much founded economics as a systematic discipline, and his ideas echo through the profession to the present day. If you don't believe in economic forecasting, read Smith's masterwork, The Wealth of Nations (1776). Smith, a native Scot, argued that Great Britain couldn't afford to hold its rebellious American colonies - an impressive conjecture considering Britain's world domination at the time.

2. David Ricardo (1772 - 1823)

Ricardo became the poster boy for middle achievers everywhere when he came up with the idea of comparative advantage. He showed how free trade allows countries to specialize in what they do best - even if they're not very good at anything. The same principle explains why Michael Jordan doesn't fix roofs, even though he might be better at it than many roofers; it's more efficient for him to focus on basketball. Disinherited for marrying outside his family's Jewish faith, Ricardo was originally a successful banker in London, then a mamber of Parliament, before he became an economist. In his "Essay on the Influence of a Low Price of Corn on the Profits of Stock," Ricardo presented the law of diminishing returns, which explains how adding more labor and machinery to a piece of land (or other fixed asset) after a certain point is just unproductive.

3. John Maynard Keynes (1883 - 1946)

Before Keynes , economics was in its classical phase. After him, it was in its Keynesian phase (just as there was Newtonian physics before Albert Einstein came along). The Great Depression convinced Keynes that the government had to engage in deficit spending to combat unemployment, a major break from the economic thinking of the time. He first became well known after World War I when he quit his British Treasury job, complaining that the Treaty of Versailles would wreak economic havoc. (He was right.) He also helped set up the system of fixed exchange rates used for decades after World War II. Unlike the majority of economists, Keynes led the life of a celebrity: he married a Russian ballerina, drank Champagne with literary figures, and made a fortune in the stock market. Keynes once said, "I would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong," which may account for continued arguments between "new Keynesian" and "new classical" economists.

4. Joseph Schumpeter (1883 - 1950)

Scumpeter , born in Austria, reportedly vowed to become the best economist, horseman, and lover in Vienna - and later regretted not meeting the horseman goal. He argued that economists' traditional idea of competition (similar companies competing on price) was much less important than "creative destruction," whereby entrepreneurs create new products and industries. He predicted that capitalism would be undermined by its own success. But unlike Karl Marx, Schumpeter didn't look forward to the system's demise. He wrote, "If a doctor predicts that his patient will die presently, this does not mean that he desires it."

5. John Kenneth Galbraith (1908 - 2006)

Galbraith once said, "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." A prolific author and adept debater, Galbraith stands among the economists best known outside the economics profession. The Canadian-born Galbraith moved to the United States in the 1930s and worked as a price controller in World War II, a Harvard professor, an advisor to President John F. Kennedy, and eventually a U.S. ambassador to India. A persistent concern of his long career has been with corporate power. In such books as The Affluent Society (1958) and The New Industrial State (1967), he argued that big companies have little to fear from competitors and exercise lots of influence over consumers. Not everyone liked the thesis, of course; critics have pointed out that big companies sometimes lose market share and go out of business.

6. Milton Friedman (1912 - 2006)

Friedman advocated free-floating exchange rates, school vouchers, the shift from the draft to a volunteer military, and for doctors to be allowed to practice medicine without a license. A proponent of free markets and limited government, Friedman challenged the Keynesian ideas that dominated economics in the decades after World War II and instead supported monetarism, an emphasis on the role of money in the economy. Born to immigrants in New York City, Friedman spent much of his career at the University of Chicago. In 1976 he won the Nobel Prize for economics for, among other things, "his demonstration of the complexity of stabilization policy" - meaning, why government has so much trouble keeping the economy on an even keel. His fame, however, only grew. In 1979 Friedman's book Free to Choose (coauthored by his wife and accompanied by a public-television series) reached a worldwide audience.

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

Barclays Says Yen to Drop to 125 on Shift in Savings

The yen will slump 5 percent this quarter, the worst start to a fiscal year since 1989, as Japanese invest more of their savings overseas, said Toru Umemoto, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Barclays Capital.
Individuals are seeking higher yields because the Bank of Japan may not raise its 0.5 percent benchmark interest rate until the third quarter, said Umemoto, the most-accurate yen forecaster last year in surveys by Bloomberg News. The currency will drop to 125 against the dollar, he said, the weakest since December 2002.

The yen has fallen against the 16 most-actively traded currencies over the past month, with the biggest losses suffered against those with higher yields such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Households gained confidence to invest offshore after Japan's economy grew at the fastest pace in three years in the fourth quarter, said Umemoto.
``The yen's downtrend will continue as Japanese, who are fed up with low returns, will continue to export capital,'' Tokyo- based Umemoto said in an interview on April 2. ``Individuals will play the leading role.''
Overseas assets held by Japanese households reached 46 trillion yen ($387.6 billion) in 2006, only 3 percent of their total financial holdings, based on Umemoto's own calculations.
`Not Particularly High'
There is ``room for households to shift money from safe but low-return deposits to riskier, higher-return assets abroad,'' said Masafumi Yamamoto, a strategist at Nikko Citigroup Ltd. in Tokyo and a former Bank of Japan currency trader. ``The Japanese ratio at 3 percent does not look particularly high.''

Yamamoto is less bearish on the yen than his counterpart at Barclays, predicting the currency will fall to 119 a dollar by June 30. He said Japanese overseas holdings rose 27 percent last year from the previous year, citing data compiled by the Bank of Japan, monthly data from the Investment Trust Association Japan, and Citigroup's own estimates.

Japanese mutual funds boosted purchases of assets abroad to about 40 percent of the total from about 8 percent in 2002, according to the Investment Trust Association. The mutual funds now have about $244 billion of assets denominated in foreign currencies, including $98 billion in the U.S. dollar.

Higher Yields
The yen weakened 6.0 percent versus the New Zealand dollar and 5.5 percent against Australia's currency in the past month. Australian and New Zealand 10-year government bonds both offer a yield premium, or spread, of 4.20 percentage points over similar- maturity Japanese debt. Securities in Germany give an extra 2.4 points.

The ratio of Japanese household savings parked in banks and post offices accounted for about half of their total financial assets of 1,550 trillion yen, compared with 10 percent in the U.S. and 30 percent in Europe, Barclays' Umemoto said. That will continue to decrease as more funds go abroad, he said.

Credit Suisse and Fortis Bank were the two most bearish for the yen among 49 contributors to a Bloomberg survey last month, forecasting losses to 125 and 127 against the dollar this quarter. The median estimate was 117.

The yen gained 1 percent last quarter as some global funds exited carry trades, where they borrow and sell yen for better returns elsewhere, because of a global slump in stock markets. Local Japanese investors are taking their place with their own form of carry trade. (Bloomberg)

Tuesday, April 3, 2007

Ugly Dance of Democracy - UP election scenario

The affidavits of 785 candidates contesting the first phase of the crucial Uttar Pradesh assembly polls make appalling reading - almost 131 have criminal cases pending against them, with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leading the pack.The BSP has 22 candidates followed by the Samajwadi Party (SP) 19, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 16 and the Congress 15 with criminal cases. In the last assembly elections in 2002, 32 of the 62 seats going to polls on April 7 were won by candidates facing serious criminal charges (and our PM, President and FM are talking about increasing rural contribution in GDP)
According to Uttar Pradesh Election Watch (UPEW), a non-partisan body of citizens, 11 candidates had not bothered to mention they had any criminal cases pending against them though the state government's website says all of them have pending cases. At least two dozen independent candidates with criminal backgrounds have also thrown their hat into the electoral ring.
  • Leading the pack is Mumbai blasts accused Abu Salem, who was in fact the first one to announce his candidature from the Mubarakpur assembly seat.
  • Then there is another don, Babloo Srivastava, who was extradited from Singapore five years ago and has now decided to contest the Lucknow central seat.
  • Besides, Raghuraj Pratap Singh alias Raja Bhaiyya, is back in the poll field as is Seema Parihar, the accomplice of slain dacoit Nirbhay Gujjar.

Charges against many candidates vary from murder, theft and rape to extortion and banditry. In seven constituencies - Jasrana, Hamirpur, Firozabad, Lalitpur, Agra Cantt, Kanpur and Aliganj - there were more than five candidates with pending criminal cases. UPEW also disclosed that political parties had also nominated many candidates with criminal records for the remaining phases.

For an election that is bound to see big money power, UPEW found to its horror that a whopping 509 candidates did not have a permanent account number (PAN) card, a must for all income-tax assesses.The Congress party candidates led this dubious distinction followed by the BSP, SP and the BJP. Among the top 10 candidates with high liabilities, one Congress candidate with a Rs.3 million loan did not have a PAN card. There were 74 candidates who declared financial assets worth more than Rs.10 million and the SP led the team with 17 candidates followed by BSP 14, BJP 14, and Congress 11.

Bibhu Mahapatra of the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), an election watch organisation, says this time around their campaign has had some effect."If you look at the 2002 results, of the 62 seats that were going to polls in the first phase, 32 seats were won by candidates with serious criminal charges. This time around it is only 24 percent of the contesting candidates. So the voice of the people for cleaner polls is making an impact. It is a process." (They are Kidding.........right).

Monday, April 2, 2007

Some intersting reasons for rise in Inflation

Here are some intersting views of readers on internet on rise in inflation (current scenario in India):

  • There are 101 reasons why inflation may happen.But which reason is biggest contributors as of today? Well, it is because RBI-Gov is printing busload of curreny notes (Rs 72000cr in past 52 weeks, some 17% of volume back then) and as a result M3 exploded by Rs 450,000cr in 52 weeks (some 18% of base back then).Now do you expect prices to decrease?---The crude price increased for SAME reason. The M3 supply of US was rising at 5% to 7% a year. And crude supply increased at the reate of 2% to 3% a year. Despite wars, the total supply of crude did NOT drop. So war is NOT a reson why crude price went $30 in 90s to now $50 to $60.--There are 10s of other reasons. But above is most important as of today.
  • Inflation is ONLY and EXCLUSIVELY due to the increase in the monetary mass, including paper and coin currency, government debts, fractional reserve banking credits as guaranteed by government etc.It is IMPOSSIBLE to have inflation through demand when the monetary mass remains fixed. Inflation = General increase in prices. Demand pressure = Increase in prices in the sector with higher demand, DECREASE of prices in the sectors with lesser demand, which is exactly what you want to get from a monetary system!!!This is called FEEDBACK: higher prices attract producers to the sector where demand is high and capacities are too low, while removing them from those areas that have low demand.If you can produce a mathematical model by which the total monetary mass stays the same but all prices rise and total turnover remains the same or increases, but it would be magic, not mathematics. "external supply shocks such an increase in the oil prices may lead to an overall increase in prices without there being an increase in the money supply"Sorry, MATHEMATICAL IMPOSSIBILITY!!! Something has to give, so some products DROP in price or completely disappear from the market, hence the added unemployment.So the statement that "all prices rise" is simply false.Price will rise for those goods that have a rigid demand, while goods with a flexible demand MUST lower their price or will lose in sales volume.This is exactly what happens with VAT: supposedly, producers can simply pass on the tax to consumers, but this is not at all what happens. Since ALL prices can not go up simultaneously and at the same consumption level, unless government increases the money supply by the VAT rate, almost all businesses will lose some income - some more, some less. Some because they don't "pass on" the tax, some because their volume will drop.Very few business will be able to maintain their sales and income intact, because the demand for their goods or services is rigid, but only at the expense of some other businesses.
  • Interest rate = Inflation+ Risk premium + Cost incurred + Profit. So if inflation increases then interest rate increase while its opposite i.e inflation increase due to interest rate increase is not right statement. One example of this is Japan where interest rate is almost zero because there is no inflation.
  • To understand how interest rates impact inflation - inflation first needs to be split into two types: demand drive and supply driven. Typically demand driven inflation starts from a low interest rate regime, which in turn creates a demand for credit. This channel translates into more money in the hands of people and a demand driven push takes place driving to higher inflation. In this case the central bank hikes policy rates, which then drives banks to raise rates. As the price of credit i.e. interst rates rises, the demand for credit declines. The impact of interest rates on inflation in this case is a function of (a) intial level of rates and (b) rate of capacity creation in the economy. If the initial level of rates is close to rock bottom as was the case for the US economy before the Fed started raising rates during the last round, then it maybe a while before they begin to bite. It may take about two years or so before any real impact takes place (though again this is dependent on the kind of monetary policy that is being followed).In the second kind of inflation i.e. supply driven, as in the case of an oil shock etc, interst rates make less of a material difference to inflation levels to start with.